Citi Says Intel Still Has a Tough Road to Challenge TSMC in AI Chip Packaging
TSMC’s grip on the AI chip race may not be as easy to shake as some Intel bulls are hoping.
According to a Citibank research note covered by Wccftech, the bank does not see Intel becoming a major near-term threat to TSMC’s advanced packaging and chip manufacturing position. The key reason is not just raw performance or marketing muscle — it is supply chain readiness, especially around the materials needed to scale Intel’s packaging approach.
Why this matters beyond Wall Street
Okay, semiconductor packaging sounds very “finance bro PDF”, but it matters to gamers and esports fans in Malaysia too.
The chips powering AI servers, cloud platforms, GPUs, gaming handhelds, capture workflows, and future creator tools all depend on these manufacturing bottlenecks. When packaging capacity is tight, everyone from NVIDIA-style AI hardware buyers to consumer GPU makers can feel the pressure somewhere down the line. In SEA, that usually translates into slower availability, higher import pricing, or “wait lah, stock not here yet” vibes.
TSMC is already the big name behind many of the world’s most advanced chips. Citi’s view is that its CoWoS advanced packaging tech could see major capacity growth in 2026 and 2027 thanks to AI demand. The report also points to other TSMC technologies, including SoIC and CoPoS, as possible drivers for future demand.
Intel’s EMIB-T sounds promising, but scaling is the hard part
Intel has reportedly been pushing its EMIB-T packaging technology aggressively, with previous chatter suggesting that major tech companies such as Google may be interested in using it for AI chips.
The pitch is interesting. Traditional advanced packaging often uses a silicon interposer to move signals between the chip and the board. Intel’s EMIB method instead uses an organic substrate, which can help reduce cost. EMIB-T adds through-silicon vias, or TSVs, to connect components more directly. Intel says this helps reduce leakage compared with standard EMIB because current can move more directly between the board and chip.
But Citi’s analyst argues that EMIB-T’s success depends heavily on ABF substrate production. ABF stands for Ajinomoto Buildup Film, a key material used in advanced chip packaging. If the ABF ecosystem is not ready for ultra-dense routing, accurate bridge embedding, and advanced power delivery at scale, EMIB-T may struggle to ramp quickly.
In simple terms: good tech is one thing, mass-producing it reliably is another boss fight entirely.
TSMC still has the timing advantage
Citi also addressed Intel’s 18A process, another area where market watchers have been watching for potential pressure on TSMC. Recent reports suggested Apple has shown strong interest in Intel’s technology, but Citi is not treating that as proof of a major production shift.
The analyst notes that tape-out activity is normal in the chip industry and does not automatically mean large-scale manufacturing will follow. For AI and high-performance computing chips, Citi also highlights that designs planned for 2027 and 2028 are already largely locked in, making sudden supplier changes less likely.
For Malaysian PC builders, esports orgs, streamers, and tech kaki watching GPU and AI hardware trends, the takeaway is pretty clear: TSMC remains the main player to watch. Intel has interesting packaging ideas, but Citi’s view is that the real challenge is whether its supporting supply chain can mature fast enough.
So yes, Intel may be making noise. But for now, TSMC’s lead still looks very hard to crack.
Source: Wccftech Gaming
